lunes, 20 de diciembre de 2010

Continúa la Crisis en Europa?

Como he mencionado, éste es uno de los temas que más preocupan para el 2011. dos notas interesante...
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En la primera, el blog Eurointelligence destaca esta nota...The crisis is already back
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Bond spreads were rising significantly on Friday, and continued to rise over the weekend. The Spanish spread is now close to 300bp, and the Portuguese close to 400bp
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Esto a pesar de los recientes acuerdos alcanzados sobre mecanismos para hacer frente a este tipo de crisis y a los rescates implementados....
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En otro post interesante, de C. Calomiris, How Spain Can Avoid the Irish Error, señala que sería un error que España siguiera el camino de Irlanda, el cual ha sido una historia de terror...
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...In an act of egregious political callousness, Ireland’s European partners have effectively thrown the Irish economy under the bus. They have done so by effectively sacrificing Ireland’s long-term economic viability in order to postpone the recognition by the European banking system of its losses on debts of Irish banks. As shown in the table below, a number of important European countries have huge banking system exposures to Irish debt, which amount to over 9 percent and 14 percent of GDP for the United Kingdom and Belgium respectively. As Patrick Honohan, the Irish central bank governor has acknowledged, the Irish government agreed to the bargain because they saw no other viable means of financing their short-term fiscal deficits without EU and IMF support...
...Now is the time for Spain to take its destiny into its own hands, and in doing so, restore the viability of at least a large part of the euro zone economy

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